Survivor Season 48, Episode 3
"Committing to the Bit"
Cast: Kyle Fraser, Mitch Guerra, Kamilla Karthigesu, David Kinne, Charity Nelms, Chrissy Sarnowsky (Civa Tribe); Shauhin Davari, Eva Erickson, Joe Hunter, Thomas Krottinger, Bianca Roses, Star Toomey (Lagi Tribe); Saiounia Hughley, Cedrek McFadden, Justin Pioppi, Mary Zheng (Vula Tribe)
For about 75 minutes of this episode, the person about to be voted out seemed pretty obvious. Oh how wrong I was! Instead, Survivor gave us a tribal council scenario that we haven't seen despite airing nearly 700 episodes.
Let's run through what happened.
After losing their third straight Immunity Challenge, Vula — the Green Tribe — heads back to Tribal Council. Nothing screams New Era Survivor like a tribe that gets absolutely decimated. Justin heads on a journey for a chance at an advantage but risks losing his vote. His fate ends up being completely in the hands of the Survivor gods and he loses his vote because he rolls 4 dice with skulls instead of 4 dice with flames. So in a 4-person tribe, Justin is without a vote.
Mary plays it cool all afternoon thinking if she looks calm, cool, and collected, the others might think she has an idol. With the added mechanic of the Shot in the Dark, Sai needed to have a back-up plan. She swings a plan to make sure if Mary is safe at Tribal, Justin will go home instead — but Cedrek thinks his path forward needs to involve Justin rather than Sai.
Mary does indeed play her Shot in the Dark and, for the second time in the show's history, the advantage actually negates votes. Mary is safe and both votes for her get cancelled out. Without realizing Justin doesn't have a vote, Sai and Cedrek are the only votes left. Sai votes for Justin but Cedrek casts his vote for Sai. Another tie!
They vote again. It's in this moment that Cedrek should be swapping his vote and getting out Justin. Sai points out later that the pizza guy lost his vote and didn't tell anyone — not even his supposed #1, Cedrek! He's dangerous! Cedrek doesn't change his vote. We're deadlocked.
This is where lots of online fans seemed confused but as far as the way the rules have played out in the past, things seem consistent (though I'll quibble with the show's use of the words "consensus” and "unanimous," but that's for another day). Sai manages to convince Cedrek that they need to get rid of Justin. When Justin fails to put up a real defense, he makes it quite easy for Cedrek to vote him out. He even offers him an invite to his restaurant. I wish Justin put up more a fight here but he seems like a chill guy and frankly, it's probably more fun for Sai to stay in the game.
On the condition that Mary and Sai make amends, Cedrek agrees to get rid of Justin. Sai agrees — well, she says she'll try and that's good enough for the surgeon.
Those are the moves but how do we feel about it? Personally, I think I'm fine with the way the decision was made. We can argue that Cedrek shouldn't have had so much power but it seems like he made the wrong move anyway, so we'll call it a wash. Nevertheless, Cedrek getting to be the deciding factor seems consistent with other tie votes (Cambodia and 42 had similar situations in their season).
The real issue fans seem to have is with the 3-tribe format that leads to us being in a situation like this — but that outcome was genuinely shocking and ignited an otherwise run-of-the-mill episode. Why would Survivor want to change that!?
As I said last week, these small tribes mean players generally have a grasp of where every other player stands and, as a result, make bold moves when their backs are against the wall. Mary realizing that she was on the outs let her try to trick her tribe into thinking she had an idol and that play caused Sai to try to make a move to ensure she wasn't voted out. All of that ended up resulting in one of the more chaotic Tribal Councils in the show's history. If you are making a television show, what's to love?
This move seems pretty awful for Cedrek. He voted against Sai and didn't put the nail in the coffin when he could have. Justin made things too easy for Cedrek to vote for him but even a little pushback would likely send Sai home. With a tribe swap coming next week, this move may not come back to bite Cedrek as it would have. Mary seems well set up in a tribe swap with Cedrek a little behind. Sai seems in the worst spot but we've seen that she moves quickly. She might just be the best suited for this type of Survivor.
The thorn in my side this week is what happened to Justin. The dice game on the journey seems to be a little unfair. Some will say the game is unfair but it does feel like Justin got a raw deal this week. If the dice game had a mechanic to give the player some agency, I think I would like it more. Players being allowed to opt out of playing or take risks throughout the steps of the game with the risk of waging personal stakes, I think it likely is a better game from a mechanical standpoint.
Ultimately, Justin had at least two chances to save his game — first when he comes back to camp and has lost his vote and second when Cedrek has already voted for Sai twice. It's not entirely fate that sent Justin home but it played a factor in sending him down a path that made it harder for him to keep himself in the game.
Even with a 90-minute episode, the show can suffer from one tribe monopolizing Tribal Council and sending others to the shadows. We get an interesting scene where Eva gives Joe a bracelet for his daughter but the Orange Tribe is nearly non-existent this week. That being said, we have many more episodes to get acquainted with the dynamics of the other tribes. For now, we'll have to be satiated with a truly stunning vote out.
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