One season of Drag Race ends and another begins — such is the way of life. And even though pretty much every season of Drag Race culminates with me, uh, losing my mind, I can't help but get excited. I ... love this franchise, and life, on the whole, kinda sucks. I need an escape. Take me away to your land of delusion, Drag Race. I'm ready for your French vanilla fantasy.
That brings us to RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars 11, the latest installment in the most devious Drag Race spinoff. You want stunts and chicanery and tomfoolery and buffoonery? You go to All Stars, where what you wanna see is not necessary what you're gonna see. The show loves stunts, and Season 11's stunt seems to be, well, utter chaos. This cast is bananas, with queens coming back after 16 years and others coming back for their fourth go at a crown (because no matter how much the All Stars promos want to ignore Canada vs. the World, that spinoff still happened!).
With a new season of All Stars here, I thought it would be fun to engage in the best part of Drag Race: blind speculation, uninformed theorizing, and wild prognostication. Of course, I base all my baseless predictions on stats pulled from previous seasons. Yes, I love a spreadsheet. Who is going to win RuPaul's Drag Race All Stars 11? Let's put these queens through the wringer and see who's left standing!
Who will win the Orange Bracket?
This bracket is actually broken into three pairs of queens, stylistically. You have the crafty weirdos (Dawn and Lucky), the glamorous lip syncers (A'Keria and Morphine), and then the OGs (Mystique and Morgan). Of course Mystique and Morgan are in the same bracket; they gave Drag Race its first Untucked fight, one that's still quoted today. I wonder if every bracket is broken down this way? We'll find out as we go!
So, last season (the only other season we have with this format), every bracket consisted of a comedy challenge, a performance challenge, and some kind of design challenge. Let's break this down along those lines. Like on All Stars 10, I'll award the top two queens in each category points (2 for winning, and +1 for winning the lip sync for your legacy). I know there are also Beautiful Benefactress Gift Badge Points or whatever between the other girls, but oh my god, seeing all the conflama around those last season, I'm not even going to begin to theorize how those are going to play out. That's the wild card.
COMEDY: The top two here, statistically, would be A'Keria and Dawn. A'Keria shows up for improv challenges, and ... well, Dawn benefits from being in an otherwise deeply unfunny bracket. Both Mystique and Morgan went home on an acting challenges, and Morphine landed in the bottom on a stand-up challenge. A'Keria absolutely slays Dawn in a lip sync.
- A'Keria: 3 pts.
- Dawn: 2 pts.
DESIGN: According to my math, A'Keria and Dawn are in the top again — but this is where I'm gonna editorialize some. We have no idea what Lucky Starzzz can actually do, and Irene the Alien proved that a Porkchop queen can be very formidable. Knowing how crafty Lucky is and betting that she learned her lesson after her disastrous design challenge on Season 17, I think she comes back prepared. Plus, I think production would want her to win on the challenge that eliminated her. I think Dawn snags a second win, knowing how well she did in design challenges on Season 16. Lucky wins the lip sync.
- Dawn: 4 pts.
- A'Keria / Lucky: 3 pts
PERFORMANCE: Here's where the rest of the girls have the chance to shine. Morphine will dominate this one, and y'know, so does Mystique. Why not? Morgan's All Stars 3 talent show number gives me pause here, while Lucky's Season 17 talent show thinks she could shine here too. But, I think this could come down to Morphine and Mystique, with Morphine winning the lip sync.
- Dawn: 4 pts.
- A'Keria / Lucky / Morphine: 3 pts.
- Mystique: 2 pts.
How do I break a tie? This is where I start factoring in vibes, baby, as I feel my way through how all those other points may shake out. I think that, honestly, A'Keria has the congenial attitude that will garner her alliances and points, I think. Plus, after how she peaced out of All Stars 6 hella defeated, her comeback is a story that I think production will want to tell. And after having her entire drag family on Season 18, there's no way we're not getting as much Morphine as possible.
ADVANCING: Dawn, A'Keria C. Davenport, Morphine Love Dion
Who will win the Pink Bracket?
Okay, I think I can break this one down into three pairs, too. April and Vivacious have the Season 6 connection, as well as representing for the early outs. I think Crystal Methyd and Salina EsTitties pair up as the kooky queens. And Aura and Silky give big glamorous performer energy? Okay, maybe this one doesn't break down as well as Bracket Orange. Having Silky and Salina in a group, though, that's going to be loud.
COMEDY: Crystal Methyd wins this, down. Bombing Snatch Game aside, Crystal is one of the most bizarrely innovative queens in the show's herstory, and I can only imagine she's gotten more confident with time. Then it's a battle between Silky and Salina — and I'd give it to Silky. She's been more consistent in comedy challenges across her three seasons, and we can't forget the growth and grace that she displayed in Canada vs. the World Season 1, where she was the runner-up. This is a new Silky, as she reminds us repeatedly in the Meet the Queens. Silky, of course, wins the lip sync.
- Silky: 3 pts.
- Crystal: 2 pts.
DESIGN: This isn't exactly a fashionable group of queens. Still, Crystal and April both did well in design challenges before, and I think this is a good place to slot in a surprise win for April. Maybe Salina's taken some sewing classes after landing in the bottom for her design challenges? But I don't think she gets points here. Crystal wins a lip sync against April? Sure — production gives them a weird song, like Weird Al's "Eat It," and Crystal slays.
- Crystal: 4 pts.
- Silky: 3 pts.
- April: 2 pts.
PERFORMANCE: Aura and Silky both have wins in the performance category (Aura as an old lady rocker and Silky as Oprah Winfrey — this show is great). I think the only other competitor here could be Salina — but this brings us to the big question: Why is Silky Nutmeg Ganache back for a fourth time? For Ginger Minj last season, we all knew fourth time felt like the charm for her, and it was. I think that could maybe be said for Silky, too, but there's another, perhaps more narratively fitting four-timer in this cast. Will All Stars 11 advance both of them to the finale? I think the tops this week are Salina and Aura, and Salina wins the lip sync.
- Crystal: 4 pts.
- Silky / Salina: 3 pts.
- April / Aura: 2 pts.
Time for vibes! I think that the rest of the points/badges/etc. get divvied out between Salina, Crystal, and maybe Vivacious (poor Vivacious; I think she's going to give us good TV but probably won't earn many points). Dust settles, and ...
ADVANCING: Crystal Methyd, Silky Nutmeg Ganache, Salina EsTitties
Who will win the Purple Bracket?
If this is indeed the order they're going in, then they saved the wildest for last — kinda like last season. Jasmine, Kennedy, and Sam are all huge, vocal personalities, and I can't wait to see how those competitors compete against each other.
COMEDY: Kennedy's going to be pretty unstoppable in this bracket. She has the best track record when it comes to comedy out of everyone in this entire cast, having won two improv challenges, a stand-up challenge, and Snatch Game across her three seasons. So, duh. I think Sam and Shuga also fare well here — and because I like her more, I'm giving it to Shuga Cain. Kennedy beats Shuga in a lip sync.
- Kennedy: 3 pts.
- Shuga: 2 pts.
DESIGN: Well, both Hershii and Joey went home on the ball challenge, so they're not likely to do well here. Shuga and Jasmine didn't have spectacular design challenge entries; never forget Jasmine's hastily adorned breastplate or Shuga's troll look (which she brought from home). I think Kennedy and Sam — especially Sam — land in the top here. And, production riggory, they give them Trisha Yearwood's version of "How Do I Live?" (from the Con Air soundtrack) and Sam kills it.
- Kennedy: 5 pts.
- Shuga / Sam: 2 pts.
PERFORMANCE: This bracket is tough. Sam won a Rusical, so it makes sense that she'd also slay this. But Jasmine and Kennedy are also great performers — and Hershii has to be good at something, right? She had a memorable talent show! I also think everyone sleeps on how well-rounded Shuga is. Also Joey Jay is there. So, I think maybe I do something crazy and give this to Hershii and Jasmine, to really rattle the rankings. Jasmine wins the lip sync.
- Kennedy: 5 pts.
- Jasmine: 3 pts.
- Shuga / Sam / Hershii: 2 pts.
Vibe time. Kennedy advances, duh, no brainer. I actually think that, based on vibes, maybe Jasmine, Shuga, and Hershii get a lot of those extra points. They all have stories (Jasmine is back and in her own power, Hershii was a Porkchop queen and also a dad, Shuga is ... old? Wow, she's 48! I say "old" with respect. #TeamShuga). But then again, I could see our loud pageant girls (Kennedy, Jasmine, and Sam) forming a "to be the best I want to beat the best" alliance. So when it all shakes out...
ADVANCING: Kennedy Davenport, Jasmine Kennedie, Sam Star
Who wins Snatch Game?
Looking at past performance, the tops this week are Sam Star (who had a high placement on her season), Silky (who won Season 11's), and ... I'm gonna be wild and say Crystal Methyd, who has spent five years studying up on El DeBarge and finally gives Ru what she wants. Crystal Methyd wins Snatch Game.
I know Kennedy famously won Season 7's Snatch Game (arguably the overall strongest in the franchise, fight me on that), but her next two performances in Snatch Game have landed her in the bottom. I don't think she bombs here, though; I think she's safe, along with Salina and Dawn.
The bottom two are Morphine and Jasmine, who were both in the bottom for their original Snatch Games. And I think Morphine sends Jasmine home.
Who wins the Talent Show?
After Snatch Game comes the talent show, where really any narrative can be woven. We know from past performances that Crystal can turn out a "do whatever you want to do" moment. She's like a bird in that way. I think Dawn is likely in the same boat as Crystal, and in a lineup of queens lip syncing to their original tracks, I think Dawn takes it for doing something bizarre, like a spoken word slam poetry session as a slutty gnome.
And of all the queens with original tracks, Sam's, Morphine's, and Silky's are the worst. Narratively, sending Morphine or Silky — two historically iconic lip syncers — home before the lip sync smackdown would be a gag. And one of them goes home, but it ends up not mattering because the queen comes back as the WILD CARD right away.
Who wins the Tournament of All Stars Lip Sync Smackdown for the Crown?
Last time, queens were seeded based on Rate-a-Queen, which I'm absolutely not going to put the effort into figuring out. Instead, I'm just going to pair them up based on their overall, franchise track record (since that's a number I literally have right over there). Also, song choices ... hit shuffle on your gayest playlist as you read this.
- Sam Star vs. Morphine Love Dion = Morphine
- Crystal Methyd vs. Salina EsTitties = Crystal
- Kennedy Davenport vs. A'Keria C. Davenport = Kennedy
- Silky Nutmeg Ganache vs. Dawn = Silky
Next round!
- Morphine Love Dion vs. Crystal Methyd = Morphine
- Kennedy Davenport vs. Silky Nutmeg Ganache — aka Battle of the Fourth Timers!!! How did I do this? I'm a genius! I should be a producer!!! = Kennedy Davenport
Lip Sync for the Crown
Morphine Love Dion vs. Kennedy Davenport = Kennedy Davnport
Kennedy Davenport will win All Stars 11.
And I do kinda hope she does, because it will mean back-to-back All Stars seasons wherein the franchise is correcting what many see as past injustices (Ginger losing Season 7, Kennedy losing All Stars 3 ... and also low-key Season 7). Is this how any of this will play out? I'm sure it won't. There will be all sorts of shenanigans, and I'm sure the format is going to go through some level of fuckery before the finale.
But hey — that's All Stars, baby!
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